DAT Monthly Dry Van Spot Rates
2023: Dry Van Spot Rates Lower than Expected
In 2022, we predicted that DAT van rates would drop, with a peak of $2.62. I was right in that the rates would go down, but they decreased much faster than I expected. After the year we’ve had, a peak of $2.62 would have been a dream. But the average rate in 2023 hovered around $2.10, with a peak of $2.41.
2024: Dry Van Spot Rates to Go Up in the New Year
Now for some good news (or maybe wishful thinking). There are signs of DAT van rates trending back upward in 2024, but I don’t think we will see the increase until Q2. Based on current rate averages across the United States, I will predict a peak of $2.39 per mile in 2024.
Class 8 Truck Orders
2023: Peak Truck Orders Just Shy of Prediction
For 2023, we predicted a peak order volume of 38k for class 8 trucks. While numbers were hovering around 20k for the first 8 months of the year, the peak volume reached 37k in November. Man, that was really close, but I still would have lost in The Price Is Right.
2024: Peak Truck Orders to Rise Slightly
There is reasonable belief that the market will improve for carriers in 2024, but some of this will come from replacement of older vehicles. So, I will be conservative in my forecast and say that the peak order volume will reach 45k.
Fuel
2023: Peak Fuel Price Soared Past Prediction
The last weekly average for diesel from the Department of Energy was $3.99, which isn’t far off from my peak prediction of $3.91. However, fuel peaked in September at $4.63 so it’s fair to say I missed the mark.
2024: Fuel Prices to Increase
With better conditions on the horizon, let’s say that diesel will peak at $4.75 in 2024. As the freight market improves in the second half of the year, I think fuel will respond with higher prices.