DAT Monthly Van Spot Rates
Predictions for Dry Van Rates in 2022 Spot-On
In 2022 we predicted that spot Dry Van rates would peak at $3.17 per mile and we were close on this one with the peak in January at $3.10 per mile. Now this means I would have lost in “Price is Right”, but I was only 2% off. Outside of my sports predictions that is as close as I have been.
Dry Van Rates to Continue Dropping in 2023
With the rates continuing to drop as we roll into 2023, we expect the rate per mile to continue to drop below 2022 levels. I feel confident the new year will see a peak of $2.62 a mile for dry van. This drop in rates will unfortunately impact smaller carriers who may have entered the market in the past year or so.
Class 8 Truck Orders
2022 Order Volume Higher Than Expected
The original equipment manufacturers (OEM’s) were really struggling with supply chain challenges due to delays in international shipping from Asia in 2022. We expected that to clear up (which it has), but didn’t realize the extent it would open up in the 2nd half of the year.
Our prediction was a peak order volume of 49,000 but we ended up seeing 56,000 in September of 2022.
Peak Order Volume to Reduce in 2023
As we look forward to 2023, we will see freight demand struggle to match the capacity buildup that occurred in 2021 and 2022, which leads me to believe that peak order volume will drop next year. In effect, we will predict a peak class 8 truck peak order volume of 38,000 for the coming year.
Fuel
2022 Diesel Pricing Higher Than Anticipated
I predicted that the National Average for Diesel would peak at $3.91 a gallon in 2022, which seemed like a decent guess for about 2 months. But the peak in the week of June 13th ended up coming in higher at $4.84 a gallon. So at least in “Price is Right” I would have had a chance, but I was still off by 93 cents, meaning I missed the target by 24%.
Holding Steady With 2023 Pricing Prediction
Forecasting fuel costs is no easy task with all the global macroeconomic factors that can lead to changes in pricing.For the new year, we are going to bring back the $3.91 a gallon peak estimate and see if it gets us a little closer.